“We can’t find anyone.” It’s the sentence we’ve heard most often from clients for the past three years.
And it’s true — there really are 109,100 unfilled positions in Quebec as of Q1 2026, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec. But here’s what most leaders don’t know: the average hourly wage offered for those vacant positions is $29.15. The average hourly wage paid to all salaried workers in Quebec? $36.49.
A gap of more than $7 an hour.
Before blaming the labor shortage, it might be worth asking: what if part of the problem isn’t a lack of candidates — but a refusal to pay market rate?
At Axxel HR, we analyze this kind of data with our clients every week. Here’s what the 2026 numbers really reveal — and what it means for your HR strategy.
1. What Quebec’s 2026 numbers actually say
1.1 The shortage is slowing down — but it hasn’t disappeared
In Q1 2026, Quebec counted approximately 109,100 unfilled positions, down 5.6% from the same quarter in 2025. The ratio of unemployed people to vacant positions now stands at 2.5 — close to three unemployed people for every open job.
That’s a far cry from the 2022 peak, when the ratio had dropped below 1.
1.2 A wildly uneven situation depending on the region
In 2025, the unemployed-to-vacancy ratio reached 6.4 in the Outaouais region, but only 0.9 in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. In other words: the “labor shortage” isn’t one uniform national reality. It’s a patchwork of very different local situations — which means a generic, one-size-fits-all solution doesn’t really work anywhere.
1.3 A scarcity rebound is already forecast
The Institut du Québec warns that labor scarcity issues are expected to come back in force. For the first time in over a century, Quebec’s working-age population will begin shrinking starting in 2026 — a trend expected to continue through 2029. The current breathing room may only be temporary.
2. The real signal nobody’s looking at: the wage gap
Here’s the single most revealing number in the entire 2026 analysis:
- $29.15/hour — average hourly wage offered for vacant positions in Quebec, Q1 2026
- $36.49/hour — average hourly wage paid to all salaried workers in Quebec, same period
- A $7.34/hour gap — roughly a 20% difference
Statistics Canada confirms this directly in its analysis of labor shortage trends: the gap between the wage offered and the “reservation wage” — the minimum job seekers are willing to accept — explains a significant share of vacant positions, particularly in retail and accommodation/food services.
In plain terms: if you’re offering less than what the market actually pays, you’re not experiencing a shortage. You’re experiencing a rational, collective refusal by candidates to work below market rate.
3. Why even well-paying sectors still can’t find staff
But the story doesn’t end with wages. In sectors like healthcare and social assistance, the wage offered already exceeds candidates’ reservation wage — and the shortage persists anyway.
That’s where other factors take over:
- Chronic workload and difficult conditions
- Unaddressed psychosocial risks — now legally regulated in Quebec under Law 27
- Lack of recognition and decision-making autonomy
- Unclear or nonexistent career advancement paths
Quebec’s healthcare sector illustrates this paradox perfectly: you can pay fairly and still lose employees in droves — because compensation is just one variable among several.
4. The shortage that isn’t one: the retention crisis
4.1 The number leaders should actually be watching
The average turnover rate in Quebec is approximately 24% — nearly one in four employees voluntarily leaves their job every year. According to a recent survey:
- 65% of departures are driven by the search for better pay
- 37% of employees leave because of their manager
- 18% leave because of poor company culture
And according to a 2024 Quebec survey by Solertia, 45% of employees leave due to a lack of professional development opportunities — close to one in two people walking away feeling they couldn’t grow.
4.2 The real cost — the one nobody calculates
According to Randstad Canada, the average cost of turnover reaches approximately $30,674 per employee per year in Canada. Nearly one in five employers say this cost exceeds $100,000 annually for their organization.
Replacing a recent graduate typically costs 30 to 40% of their annual salary. Replacing an experienced employee costs around 150% of their salary. For a highly skilled employee, that figure can reach 400%.
4.3 The finding that changes everything
According to available data on business obstacles in Canada, nearly 35% of businesses anticipate that labor shortage will be an obstacle over the next three months. But 27.6% also anticipate that retaining their skilled employees will be an obstacle — a number almost as high as recruitment itself.
In other words: for a large share of businesses, the problem isn’t only finding candidates. It’s keeping the ones they already have.
5. What we’re seeing on the ground
One of our manufacturing clients reached out in 2025 convinced they were facing a severe shortage — three technician positions vacant for over six months, despite dozens of job postings.
When we dug into the situation, the real picture emerged: their pay scale hadn’t been reviewed in four years. The wage offered was roughly 15% below the regional market. And three technicians had left the company in the previous two years — for exactly that reason.
This wasn’t a shortage of candidates. It was an unadjusted compensation problem creating both a recruitment problem and a retention problem at the same time.
After revising the pay scale and introducing regular feedback touchpoints with the technicians still on staff, all three positions were filled within eight weeks — and no further departures occurred over the following year.
6. Self-assessment: real shortage, or retention crisis?
Ask yourself these five questions:
- Has your pay scale been reviewed in the last 24 months based on current market data?
- Is your voluntary turnover rate higher than 24% — the Quebec average?
- Do you know the exact reasons your last five employees voluntarily left?
- Do your managers receive ongoing training in feedback and recognition?
- Do your employees with 3 to 5 years of tenure — the period HR experts identify as highest-risk for resignation — have a clear path for advancement?
If you answered “no” to three or more questions, your main issue probably isn’t a shortage of available candidates. It’s a compensation and retention strategy that needs to be revisited as a priority.
How Axxel HR can help
Telling a real candidate shortage apart from a disguised retention crisis requires a rigorous analysis of your internal HR data compared against current market realities.
At Axxel HR, we help Quebec organizations with:
- Compensation audits and benchmarking against the regional market
- Turnover analysis and identifying the real reasons behind departures
- Designing retention strategies tailored to your sector
- Training managers in best practices for recognition and feedback
- Strategic recruitment for genuinely hard-to-fill roles
Contact us for a diagnostic of your situation → axxelhr.com
FAQ — Labor Shortage and Retention in Quebec
Is Quebec’s labor shortage over in 2026?
No, but it’s slowing down. The number of unfilled positions dropped 5.6% between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec. However, the Institut du Québec forecasts a return of labor scarcity issues starting in 2026, as the working-age population begins to decline for the first time in over a century.
Why is the wage offered for vacant positions lower than the average wage?
In Q1 2026, the average hourly wage offered for a vacant position was $29.15, compared to $36.49 for all salaried workers in Quebec. This gap suggests that in many sectors, employers are trying to hire below what the market actually pays, which artificially extends how long positions stay vacant.
What is the average employee turnover rate in Quebec?
The average turnover rate in Quebec is approximately 24%, meaning roughly one in four employees voluntarily leaves their job each year. The main causes cited are compensation, the relationship with their manager, and company culture.
How much does employee turnover cost a Canadian business?
According to a Randstad Canada survey, the average cost of turnover is approximately $30,674 per employee per year. Nearly one in five employers say this cost exceeds $100,000 annually for their organization.
Why do some well-paying sectors still struggle with staffing shortages?
In sectors like healthcare, the wage offered often exceeds candidates’ reservation wage, yet the shortage persists. Other factors come into play: difficult working conditions, high workload, unaddressed psychosocial risks, and lack of recognition.
How do I know if my business has a real shortage or a retention crisis?
Compare your voluntary turnover rate to your industry average, check whether your wages are aligned with the current market, and review the reasons your employees left over the past three years. If most departures are voluntary and tied to compensation or management, you’re likely facing a retention crisis rather than a true shortage of available candidates.
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